Policy dominated the market’s attention this past week, culminating in Friday’s long-awaited Supreme Court decision, which struck down President Trump’s sweeping tariff regime.
On Friday, all three major indexes swung into the green on the Supreme Court ruling, and all three major indexes finished the week higher.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rallied to close up 0.7%, finishing the week up 1.1%, while the blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.5% on Friday to close the week up a narrow 0.3%. The tech-concentrated Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) picked up 0.9% on Friday to return 1.3% on the week.
Oil prices (BZ=F, CL=F) ended the week up roughly 5.5%, as traders have priced in disruptions across the Middle East if the US is to strike Iran, bringing the energy product’s monthly return to around 11%.
Headlining the economic data calendar in the week ahead will be Friday’s Producer Price Index, offering investors a read on upstream input costs as inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
The data comes after the latest Personal Consumption Index numbers showed that headline prices and “core” PCE, which excluded food and energy — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — both rose by 0.4% in December over the previous month, steeper increases than those seen in November.
Investors will also get a reading on sentiment from the Conference Board on Tuesday, plus more jobs data from the weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims releases on Wednesday as the market attempts to sort out the state of the labor market.
In the corporate world, all eyes will be on Nvidia’s (NVDA) fourth quarter results, set for release after the market close on Wednesday. Earnings from the chip-making giant, the world’s most valuable company, will be a key bellwether on the state of the AI trade.
Salesforce (CRM) results on Wednesday will also offer a read on the state of the software sell-off that has crushed the sector throughout February. Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW), out Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, will give investors a proxy read on the housing market; and Constellation Energy (CEG) and Dominion Energy (D) will offer more insight into the state of the US power market.
Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang speaks about the Vera Rubin AI platform at the annual Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas on Jan. 6, 2026. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images) ·PATRICK T. FALLON via Getty Images
Investors — and the White House — finally got a decision they’ve been waiting on for nearly a year.
In a 6-3 vote on Friday, the US Supreme Court struck down a large swath of President Trump’s tariff regime, ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) doesn’t give the president the authority to levy wide-ranging tariffs on other countries, dealing a blow to the administration’s economic and foreign policy.
In the minutes after the ruling, stocks reversed on initial losses during Friday’s trading session and turned up only lightly into the green as markets reacted kindly to the decision.
“The market reaction to the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump-era tariffs was muted, suggesting it was largely priced in,” Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, said in emailed commentary. “Because IEEPA tariffs accounted for about 60% of those imposed, the decision’s economic impact is limited.”
Unaddressed, however, were potential refunds, which could total up to $175 billion, according to one estimate. That question will now go before trade courts in Washington, D.C., but companies that depend on imports are likely to begin making those requests to US Customs and Border Protection immediately.
In a press briefing on Friday, President Trump said the White House would be immediately implementing a “10% global tariff … over and above the normal tariffs already being charged” under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 as the administration turns toward other measures to replace the now struck-down IEEPA tariffs.
“We would fade a short-term bounce on the Supreme Court ruling because the Trump administration will quickly pivot to different legal grounds for replacement tariffs while deficits go higher in the interim,” Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist of LPL Financial, wrote in emailed commentary.
“However, if lower tariffs help cool inflation, it could firm up expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year,” he added.
President Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House on Feb. 20 in Washington, D.C., as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik looks on. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Oil prices, which spent 2025 trending steadily down, are now up 15% since the start of 2026. That’s thanks in no small part to tensions in Iran.
Over the past month, Washington and Tehran have been locked in negotiations over a new nuclear deal that would limit the Iranian regime’s ability to build nuclear weapons. President Trump on Thursday said Iran had 10 days to make a deal with the US, raising tensions over the possibility of military action.
While Iran sits on the third-largest proved crude oil reserves in the world and ranks among the top 10 producers globally, oil markets pay most attention to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint that sees roughly 20 million barrels of petroleum products per day cross its waters.
In a situation where US action remains small and targeted, Rystad Energy head of geopolitical analysis Jorge León said, prices would likely jump by roughly $10 per barrel before quickly coming back down to rebalance.
If the US were instead to pursue a sustained military campaign, León said — especially if it were to prompt serious retaliation by Iran, such as strikes against oil infrastructure in the region — markets would likely see a “sustained price increase [of roughly] $15 per barrel.”
“If markets begin to seriously price in a US strike on Iran within the next couple of weeks, the reaction will depend far more on the scale and consequences of the action than on the political narrative itself,” Capital analyst Daniela Hathorn said in emailed commentary.
Even without immediate military action, Hathorn said, “prolonged uncertainty alone can sustain a geopolitical risk premium.”
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 17. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Economic data: Chicago Federal Reserve national activity index, January (-0.04 previously); Factory orders, December (+1.0% expected, +2.7% previously); Durable goods orders, December final reading (-1.4% previously); Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing activity index, February (-1.2 previously)
Earnings calendar: Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Dominion Energy (D), ONEOK (OKE), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Woodside Energy Group (WDS), BWX Technologies (BWXT), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS), Viper Energy (VNOM), Ovinitiv (OVV), Penumbra (PEN), Summit Therapeutics (SMMT)
Economic data: ADP weekly employment change, week ended Feb. 7 (10,250 previously); FHFA house price index, month-on-month, December (+0.3% expected, + 0.6% previously); Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index, February (-6 previously); Conference Board consumer confidence, February (88.0 expected, 84.5 previously); Dallas Federal Reserve services activity, February (2.7 previously)
Earnings calendar: Home Depot (HD), Alibaba (BABA), Constellation Energy (CEG), MercadoLibre (MELI), The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), American Tower Corporation (AMT), EOG Resources (EOG), Realty Income Corporation (O), Alcon (ALC), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), NRG Energy (NRG), Workday (WDAY), Axon Enterprise (AXON), First Solar (FSLR), Amer Sports (AS), CoStar Group (CSGP), HP Inc. (HPQ), GoDaddy (GDDY), SPX Technologies (SPXC), Tempus AI (TEM)
Earnings calendar: Nvidia (NVDA), HSBC (HSBC), Salesforce (CRM), The TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Synopsys (SNPS), Nu Holdings (NU), Snowflake (SNOW), Diageo (DEO), HEICO Corporation (HEI), Medline (MDLN), Trip.com Group (TCOM), Agilent Technologies (A), VICI Properties (VICI), Zoom Communications (ZM), United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR), TKO Group Holdings (TKO), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Sterling Infrastructure (STRL), Permian Resources Corporation (PR), The Trade Desk (TTD), Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Joby Aviation (JOBY), Chime Financial (CHYM)
Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ended Feb. 21 (219,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended Feb. 14 (1.87 million previously); Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing activity, February (0 previously)
Earnings calendar: Royal Bank of Canada (RY), TD Bank (TD), Intuit (INTU), Monster Beverage (MNST), Dell Technologies (DELL), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Eni S.p.A. (E), Vistra Corp. (VST), Rocket Companies (RKT), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Autodesk (ADSK), Baidu (BIDU), CoreWeave (CRWV), PSEG (PEG), Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB), EMCOR Group (EME), Coupang (CPNG), Block (XYZ), Zscaler (ZS), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Formula One Group, Stellantis (STLA), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), Talen Energy Corporation (TLN), The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM)
Friday
Economic data: Producer Price Index final demand, month-on-month, January (+0.3% expected, +0.5% previously); PPI final demand, year-on-year, January (+3.0% previously); PPI, ex food and energy, month-on-month, January (+0.3% expected, +0.7% previously); PPI ex food and energy, year-on-year, January (+3.3% previously); MNI Chicago PMI, February (52.5 expected, 54.0 previously); Kansas City Federal Reserve services activity, February (2 previously)
Earnings calendar: Chart Industries (GTLS), Pearson (PSO), Frontline (FRO), Globalstar (GSAT), BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG), TXNM Energy (TXNM), TransAlta Corporation (TAC), Endeavour Silver Corp. (EXK), NIQ Global Intelligence (NIQ)
